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Sohal, TNR, SEKERTZIS, darkhorse26, BloodyVampire, ITCHY, LBboss, xin, straycat, sunshinesteve, DIM-GR, squeakingdoor, jjbuck, HTRN, jayhonea, or mas04003.
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Match-ups #1
Sohal (2242-655-138), overall rank #2 with krach of 8721 VS. #16
mas04003 (243-960-52), overall rank #124 with krach of 200
mas looks to be thoroughly outmatched here. Sohal is a complete beast, and has been for a long time, while mas is still learning the game. The head-to-head record is Sohal 2-0 with both wins coming in less than 300 moves by forfeit. Probably the hardest thing for mas to overcome here is that Sohal has the board management skill to overcome a severe deficit of either power or moveables if he gets down early. So, Sohal can either start very aggressively to get info at the cost of power, or withstand a very successful lotto by mas, and still come back to win. According to Xerxes' odds sheet, mas has just a 2.3% chance of winning this game. The payoff for an upset bet on mas here will be 43:1. The longer this game goes, the worst mas' chances get, but if mas keeps the game short and furious, that bet might just win the "best bettor" competition.
#2
TNRockyraccoon (1910-1163-89), overall rank #7 with krach of 3876 VS.
jayhonea (153-144-7), overall rank #104 with krach of 415
Watch out, TNR. On paper, this looks like a no-brainer. TNR has a massive edge in both experience and skill. HOWEVER, TNR is coming back from a long absence and jayhonea always plays much tougher than his rank. Is TNR still as good as his historical rank suggests, or is he like the old retired boxer who comes back out of shape and slow for a first round paycheck? TNR’s record since his return suggests that he still has the magic, but there are some questionable losses and draws in there, too. jayhonea claims recent wins over BossHawg, DIM-GR, ODHGOS, ogetartS, Devilsmacker, and other competent, if not world-class, talent. The odds sheet gives jay a 9.2% chance of victory here, which generates an 11:1 payoff on the upset. Based on the two variables mentioned above, though, there is no doubt that some Meta money would be wisely bet on the upset here.
#3
SEKERTZIS (5015-2216-184), overall rank #11 with krach of 3397 VS. #14
HTRN (2378-1642-85), overall rank #90 with krach of 631
The “Battle of the Internet Screamers” represents a horrible draw for SEKERTZIS. HTRN as a #14 seed is a complete joke. This Mod vs. Admin match-up could be tense from the first move and looks more like an Elite Eight match than anything else. Both players are incredibly experienced and understand the slightest nuances of the game. However, HTRN has lately been battling a deep antipathy towards winning, while SEKERTZIS is definitely coming into this game with a hostile and aggressive mentality due to his experience in the recent doubles tournament. One gets the sense that SEKERTZIS would strangle his mother to get the win, whereas HTRN might be more interested in watching a “Dukes of Hazzard” re-run. If the real HTRN shows up, I call this a coin-toss. And, the 6.4:1 payoff for the upset definitely favors the underdog bet.
#4
darkhorse26 (2701-1683-139), overall rank #15 with krach of 2799 VS. #13
jjbuck (1680-1571-39), overall rank #86 with krach of 703
This match seems to be well-paired. darkhorse has earned and maintained his high rank over a long period of stellar play. jjbuck has plenty of experience but hasn’t made any strides up the rank ladder in over a year and has only recently returned to Metaforge after an extended absence. However, darkhorse needs to not look past this first round game. These guys have played each other 27 times since March 3, 2009 and the result is a darkhorse edge of 21 wins vs. 5 losses and a draw. Mathematically, that means darkhorse wins 80% of the time, which lines up exactly with Xerxes’ predictions. jj has over 3000 games under his belt and has recent wins over Devilsmacker, johnbilling, Mclovin, ogetartS, and some other guy named Sadistic. An upset bet payoff here is worth 4.9:1, but there are many better upset bets to make. Unless someone slips darkhorse a “mickey”, this one is probably in the bag.
#5
BloodyVampire (239-50-9), overall rank #18 with krach of 2634 VS. #12
squeakingdoor (552-454-29), overall rank #79 with krach of 759
BV is the enigma of the bracket. A casual review of his profile page reveals no stars and minimal feedback, but a very rare trophy: “2nd place, 2011 RV Classic”. Squeakingdoor’s feedback suggests that he is presently under-ranked according to several very knowledgeable sources. BV is 1-0 vs. squeak in a recent 594 move game ending with a death blow, suggesting that the game could have gone either way until late. There’s not a lot of data here to confidently forecast the outcome, so this might be a fun game to watch if the competitors agree to a spectator-friendly format. Is the 4.5:1 payoff worth an upset bet? I think it would be hard to justify based on that silver trophy on BV’s profile page.
#6
ITCHY (444-288-25), overall rank #29 with krach of 1916 VS.
DIM-GR (1569-1608-74), overall rank #70 with krach of 914
This match is the undercard to the “Battle of the Internet Screamers”. Xerxes’ data promises a 3.1:1 payoff for the upset bet. Experience seems to dramatically favor DIM, who has played 6 games to every 1 played by the cutaneously inflamed one. However, head-to-head data shows that ITCHY owns a 12-2 advantage over DIM, including 2 wins this week. Can DIM be the Calamine lotion that snuffs out the ITCH? It appears more likely that DIM is a placebo and that the ITCH will continue.
#7
LBboss (2841-283-29), overall rank #33 with krach of 1718 VS. #10
sunshinesteve (3797-4224-212), overall rank #67 with krach of 945
This is a match between two players with completely different methods. sunshinesteve plays more games against humans than anyone on meta, recently winning the “Bust Out Some Games” tournament while leading it wire-to-wire. LBboss plays and destroys the Bots multiple times a day, but plays humans very rarely. LBboss won their only game versus each other, a 344 move forfeit 9 months ago. Xerxes’ data predicts a 1:2 chance of steve winning this game, but it could easily go either way. If I were steve, I would try to play as unlike a Bot as possible by calling every bluff early.
#8
xin (2284-2140-108), overall rank #51 with krach of 1232 VS. #9
straycat (559-406-17), overall rank #59 with krach of 1109
xin’s unpredictability vs. straycat’s Dutch sensibility. Similar to Vizzini’s exhortation about “never get involved in a land war in Asia”, in Stratego it is best to never get into a tournament versus a Dutchman. stray has been doing this a long time and has Stratego in his DNA. But, xin is very capable and has 5000 games under his belt. Head-to-head favors xin convincingly: 17-10-0 over the past 18 months. The odds sheet only favors xin 53-47, so it doesn’t seem that an upset bet here would be worth it.
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2012 Eastern Bracket Headquarters and Match-Ups (Read 4259 times)
