razorclaw
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Well, so much for a bracket with no upsets! After the top 4 seeds advanced to the Sweet Sixteen, round 3 delivered nothing BUT upsets. SEK (#3 seed) beat TNR (#2 seed), and darkhorse (#4 seed) beat Sohal (#1 seed). SEK’s path to the Elite Eight included wins over HTRN (14), ITCHY (6), and TNR (2). Though I did not see any of these games, it doesn’t appear that SEK was significantly threatened in any of them. SEK beat HTRN in 150 moves, ITCHY in 481 moves, and TNR in 262 moves. SEK is playing aggressive, efficient, and effective Stratego in this tournament. darkhorse’s path to the Elite Eight included wins over jjbuck (13), BloodyVampire (5), and Sohal (1). The number of moves required in these wins was: 146 for jjbuck, 543 for BloodyVampire, and 585 for Sohal. Compared to SEK, it appears that darkhorse is playing more cautiously, but has knocked off generally tougher competition at each level. Fourth Round Match-up #3 SEKERTZIS (5015-2216-184), overall rank #11 with krach of 3397 VS. #4 darkhorse26 (2701-1683-139), overall rank #15 with krach of 2799 For this important fourth round match-up, I expect each player to dance with the one that brung him. SEK will likely start big, attempting to gain a clear power advantage early and putting enormous pressure on darkhorse to catch up. darkhorse will have to defend well early and either make SEK’s aggression hurt him immediately, or keep things neutral and exploit a knowledge advantage to slowly tighten the noose. The head-to-head record for these two is a remarkable 19-20-2 advantage for darkhorse. However, SEK leads 6-1-2 in the past 9 games. It is probably best to use this information cautiously since darkhorse just demonstrated a win over Sohal after going 0-15 in their last 15 games. Though both players are playing well and enjoying success so far, I think that darkhorse’s expert usage of a less risky style has inherent advantages that will severely test SEK’s aggressive tendencies. I predict darkhorse to win in over 450 moves.
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